At the beginning of July 2016, the average domestic quotation for urea was 1285.4 yuan / ton. At the end of September, the average domestic quotation for domestic manufacturers was 1241.4 yuan / ton, and the price fell 3.42%. At the end of September, the mainstream ex-factory price of the domestic urea market was 1120-1200 yuan / ton, the low-end price was 1050-1100 yuan / ton, and the high-end price was 1,200-1300 yuan / ton.

 

Quote analysis

 

Products: The domestic urea market remained basically stable in July, and prices in some regions showed a loosening trend. On the whole, although the urea market has a slight support, the overall domestic nitrogen fertilizer is still weak, and dealers mostly wait and see. The domestic urea market continued to decline in August. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other places did not go down significantly because of the low initial quotations. However, the prices of regions with relatively high relative prices in East China, North China, and Central China declined significantly. The operating rate of domestic urea plants continued to decline, and some manufacturers stopped production and maintenance. The average utilization rate in East China is about 60%, the average utilization rate in Central China is about 65%, and the average utilization rate in North China is about 64%. In September, the domestic urea market as a whole showed a steady and moderate rise, and the upward trend gradually stabilized. The overall quotation was still mainly stable. The upstream domestic anthracite is stable and strong, and the transaction is acceptable. Affected by supply-side reforms and environmental protection, the supply of anthracite is decreasing, but it has not caused a shortage, and local areas may have tight resources due to transportation. Recently, it was learned from the miners that in the lump coal, the civil market has started to take action, but it is still not obvious. The miner stated that the lump coal sales are slightly better than the previous period, and most local lump coal inventory is at a low level. The enthusiasm of downstream businesses did not continue to rise, the new transaction volume began to decrease significantly, and the market rally gradually eased. However, during the price increase period, most manufacturers have pending orders, and there is no pressure on shipping and inventory, so the quotations are firm.

 

Industry: On August 3, 2016, the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on Restructuring the Petrochemical Industry to Promote Transformation and Increase Efficiency” (hereinafter referred to as the “Opinions”), which proposed the overall requirements, key tasks and safeguard measures for the sustainable and healthy development of the Chinese petrochemical industry. . One of its key tasks is to work hard to resolve excess capacity. Strictly control the additional capacity of surplus industries such as urea, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride, soda ash, and yellow phosphorus. In addition, the State Council explicitly proposed to support the advantageous petrochemical industries such as chemical fertilizers to “go global” and carry out international capacity cooperation.

 

Hagi City Forecast

 

The urea analyst of Business Club believes that as of the end of September, the domestic urea market has risen steadily and slightly, rising by more than 50 yuan / ton, and most companies have quoted prices around 1,200 yuan / ton. Because the domestic urea market downstream demand has not increased significantly, As a result, the price risk has increased, and new orders have gradually decreased. It is expected that the urea market as a whole will be mainly stable in the fourth quarter, with some local fluctuations.